CERR: IMF Estimates Uzbekistan's GDP at $101.6 Billion

According to the IMF's assessment, the nominal GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion sums ($10.7 billion) and amounted to 1,192.2 trillion sums ($101.6 billion).

CERR hosted a discussion among experts and academics regarding a study conducted by the Statistics Agency in collaboration with the IMF. The primary goal of this study was to assess the size of the unobserved economy in Uzbekistan and examine its impact on other macroeconomic indicators.

According to the IMF's assessment, the nominal GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion sums ($10.7 billion) and amounted to 1,192.2 trillion sums ($101.6 billion).

On July 31, 2024, an International Roundtable on the "Results of the Statistical Assessment of the Informal and Shadow Economy in Uzbekistan" was held in Tashkent. The purpose of the event was to discuss the results of the analysis conducted within the framework of the technical mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB).

The event was organized by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) in cooperation with the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan.

The event was attended by experts from the Center for Economic Research and Reforms, the Statistics Agency, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Central Bank, the Tax Committee, as well as representatives of ministries and agencies, think tanks, universities, international organizations, public figures, and the media.

Obid Khakimov, Director of CERR, opened the event by informing participants about the reforms aimed at improving the economic situation in Uzbekistan. He emphasized the importance of the statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy as a tool for identifying hidden reserves and developing effective public policy.

"These studies will help not only to understand the current state of the economy, but also to create conditions for the legalization and integration of informal sectors into the formal economy," the CERR director emphasized.

He urged participants to actively discuss the proposed topics and share their opinions in order to jointly develop strategies that promote sustainable economic growth and social justice.

Next, Bahodir Begalov, Director of the Statistics Agency, addressed the participants, emphasizing the importance of statistical data for shaping effective economic policy and sustainable development. He noted the importance attached by the country's leadership to the quality and standards of data collection, as well as the support provided by international organizations in this process.

Experts presented data on the scale of the informal economy. Changes in the sectoral structure of the country's economy as a result of recalculations taking into account the informal and shadow sectors were discussed.

Koba Gvenetadze, the IMF Resident Representative in Uzbekistan, greeted the participants, noting that "Uzbekistan is in the process of transforming its economy towards a market economy, and this is a long journey. We provide all possible assistance to our Uzbek colleagues in many areas of statistical calculation and analysis. The technical assistance that IMF experts can provide is also of interest to us, because it will also allow us to access data on the current state of statistics in the country. Based on this, we will see the dynamics of economic development."

Levan Gogoberishvili, an expert on Real Sector Statistics at the International Monetary Fund, presented a brief summary of the results of the IMF's technical assistance missions in the field of national accounts statistics in his video message.

Emphasizing the need to revise national accounts to take into account the unobserved economy, he noted the importance of ensuring the completeness of statistical data and a more accurate representation of the state of the economy.

It was also indicated that the previous general revision was conducted in 2019, during which the main changes concerned agricultural data. During the 2024 general revision, the main changes concerned estimates of the unobserved economy in such service sectors as construction, hotels and restaurants, healthcare, education, and others.

According to the IMF expert, the adjustment resulted in an increase in the nominal GDP level by approximately 10-12%. The maximum change in the growth rate of real GDP is up to 0.8 percentage points. "Therefore, the publication of this data will significantly improve the overall quality of national accounts," Gogoberishvili emphasized.

He also reminded that the next general revision of the national accounts time series is scheduled for 2029.

During the roundtable, Abrorali Mamajanov, Head of Department at the Statistics Agency, presented the results of calculations on the statistical assessment of the informal and shadow economy in macroeconomic indicators. He noted that "research shows that the integration of the informal sector into the formal economy requires careful analysis and accurate data, which will allow for more effective economic policy planning and informed decision-making."

The event discussed the results of calculations of the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on macroeconomic indicators. The assessment of the informal and shadow economy was conducted based on the results of sample statistical observations and administrative data.

The study was conducted throughout the republic in 14 regions: in 165 districts of Uzbekistan, more than 7,000 households were surveyed on expenditures on transport, housing, food, culture, education and healthcare, as well as on construction and industry.

Based on the collected data, an assessment was made of the volume of the informal and shadow economy and its impact on GDP by sector and region for the period from 2017 to 2023, which allowed identifying the scale of the unobserved economy and its impact on overall economic activity.

As a result of the sample statistical observations and calculations, the coverage of macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and GDP per capita, was improved, as well as their alignment with international methodologies.

According to the results of the IMF assessment, the nominal GDP of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2023 increased by 125.6 trillion sums ($10.7 billion) and amounted to 1,192.2 trillion sums ($101.6 billion).

During the discussions, experts noted that aligning data with international standards (IMF or World Bank methodology) ensures comparability with other countries. This allows for more accurate analysis of economic indicators and their use for international comparisons.

The roundtable served as an important platform for exchanging views and developing strategies for legalizing the informal economy, which, in turn, can significantly impact macroeconomic indicators, including GDP.

Participants emphasized the need for further cooperation between government agencies, international organizations, and research institutions to create effective policies that promote the integration of informal sectors into the formal economy. This cooperation will be a key factor in achieving sustainable economic growth and improving the living standards of Uzbek citizens.

CERR Public Relations Service